According to the WTO - World Trade Organization - the outlook for an early recovery in world trade has improved following a faster-than-expected expansion of merchandise trade in the second half of last year. According to new WTO estimates, the volume of world merchandise trade is forecast to increase by 8.0% in 2021 after declining by as much as 5.3% in 2020, continuing the recovery from the pandemic-induced collapse from the lows recorded in the second quarter of 2020.

The WTO has warned that these figures, while positive, are "no reason to relax," in the words of its director general, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. Growth will be particularly marked in Asia, where it could reach a rate of 14.4%, having climbed 0.3% in 2020 despite the downward trend of the global average. However, regions such as the Middle East will lag further behind, with a year-on-year increase of only 5%, below pre-pandemic levels. On the other hand, the strong overall increase in international trade does not preclude significant divergences between countries. In fact, some developing regions are well below the world average, the WTO noted in reference to the differences observed in trade recovery. Europe would rank second, climbing 9.7% compared to 2020, followed by North America (8.7%), South America (7.2%) and Africa (7%), which also records a pace below that achieved in 2019, before the outbreak of the pandemic. As for trade in services, which has suffered the most from the pandemic, a 9% decline is expected in 2021and a recovery in 2022, but not at the same levels as merchandise trade. Therefore, 2022 will be the year of recovery of international trade, but this will be uneven by zones, and this will be influenced by the process of immunization against covid-19.