China's industrial production grew by 35.1% year-on-year in the first two months of the year, according to official data published today by the National Statistics Office (ONE).
This unusual advance - the last time this indicator rose more than 20% was in 2012 - is due to the fact that in January and February of last year industrial production plummeted 13.5% due to the impact of the pandemic in China.
However, it is even higher than expected by analysts, who expected a rebound of around 30%.
The ONE also published the comparison with the first two months of 2019 to exclude the effects of the pandemic, which shows an advance of 16.9%.
The consulting firm Capital Economics points out that demand from abroad was a favorable factor, as were travel restrictions due to outbreaks during the lunar New Year - celebrated in mid-February - which allowed factories to be kept open for a longer time. than usual.
The recovery of industrial production in China began in April last year, and since then this data has not registered any year-on-year reading lower than that of the previous month, with December (+ 7.3%) marking the best level of 2020.
Breakthrough in manufacturing
According to ONE data, production rose more in private companies (+ 43.8%) than in publicly owned companies (+ 23%).
Industrial production, the institution recalled, is used in China to measure the activity of large companies with an annual turnover of at least 20 million yuan (3.1 million dollars, 2.5 million euros).
Among the three main categories in which the ONE divides this indicator, the growth of manufacturing stands out (+ 39.5%), followed by the electricity, gas, heating and water production and supply industry (+ 19.8%) and, finally, by the mining company (+ 17.5%).
The institution made an aside to influence the growth of the production of the manufacture of equipment and tools (+ 59.9%) and of high technology (+ 49.2%)
With regard to specific products, the first section highlights industrial robots or excavators, of which production was doubled.
The same trend was followed by electric vehicles - to which the Government maintained the subsidies after withdrawing them in mid-2019, although in 2021 it will reduce them by 20% - and one of the most demanded products internationally during the pandemic, equipment for microcomputers, a segment that includes laptops and desktops.
The official statistical organ also compares the data of 41 industrial subsectors, of which 40 experienced an increase in their activity in November when compared to the same month of 2019.
Sustained growth
The ONE also released other indicators for the first two months, such as retail sales, which met expectations by rising 33.8% year-on-year.
Employment, one of Beijing's main concerns after the pandemic, stood at 5.5% at the end of February according to the official urban rate released by the Office, which represents an advance of 0.1 points compared to the first month of 2020 although a decrease of 0.7 compared to the same time last year.
On the other hand, investment in fixed assets rose by 35%, with special prominence for real estate, which, unlike infrastructure and manufacturing, also grew compared to two years ago.
Although the ONE recognizes that the growth rates of these data are very high due to the base effect, it ensures that when these are removed from the equation “the main indicators grew steadily, and the macroeconomic indicators were within a reasonable range.”
Capital Economics expects the activity to maintain its strength in the short term, especially with the withdrawal of contagion prevention measures - China has not reported any local contagion of covid since February 15 -, which will boost consumption.
However, in the longer term, the inertia "will soften," says the consultancy, which points to the gradual withdrawal of support policies in China and the prediction that international demand for Chinese goods will decline as they leave. recovering the habitual patterns of consumption thanks to the vaccination campaigns.
Digital Newspaper El Confidencial